Polysilicon

This week, spot market transactions for polysilicon have been low, with purchasing activity slowing down until after International Workers’ Day. For now, prices hold at last week’s level.

China-made polysilicon chunks:

Major manufacturers attempt to slow down price declines amid the sluggish market. However, ingot manufacturers still have some polysilicon inventories on hand, and buyers’ bids remain below sellers’ offers, resulting in buyer-seller standoffs. As no orders have been placed this week, the average price hovers at last week’s level.

China-made granular polysilicon:

  • Primarily supplied by major manufacturers
  • Prices land at RMB 36-38/kg
  • Price quotes slip by RMB 1/kg (but no buyers so far)

In recent months, US policy changes have disrupted polysilicon shipments, leading to a wait-and-see sentiment in manufacturing, cautious downstream buying, and a slip in average prices to USD 19/kg.

Prices are falling due to weaker demand, while ingot manufacturers still hold enough stock for 1-1.5 months. Their short-term strategy focuses on using up inventory to gain leverage in April-May, the same as reported last week. Smaller firms with limited stock will have a small number of deals by late April, while large transactions still depend on major players’ negotiations and are likely to be settled in early May, with ingot production cuts for May still under discussion.

Polysilicon suppliers will keep prices stable and maintain April production at a level similar to March, with some cutting production. As for the production schedule for May, despite lower electricity prices during the hydropower season, polysilicon makers’ inventory accumulation remains a great concern amid the gloomy market. Thus, they are unlikely to increase production.

Wafer

With China’s new policy approaching, end-user demand has sharply shrunk. Driven by the continued cell price declines, the wafer market has weakened further this week.

Prices for most specifications have dropped notably:

  • 183N: RMB 1.15/piece
  • 210RN: RMB 1.35/piece
  • 210N: RMB 1.5/piece

Overall, market sentiment remains subdued.

Trading prices for p-type M10 wafers are sustained at RMB 1.05–1.20/piece. However, due to weak p-type demand in China, actual transactions mostly fall within RMB 1.05–1.15/piece, and the market activity is notably lackluster. Although non-China orders provide support with their quotes firm at RMB 1.20–1.25/piece, limited overall demand suggests little room for a short-term price rebound.

As for n-type wafers, the mainstream trading price for 183N this week is RMB 1.15/piece, while some smaller producers have accepted trading prices at RMB 1.10/piece, indicating further price slips. Most manufacturers are negotiating, with further trading prices likely to keep falling.

For 210N wafers, prices have remained relatively firm, while some are traded at RMB 1.45/piece, suggesting falling price trends. Some manufacturers remain under negotiation, and further trading prices may approach RMB 1.45/piece. If end-user demand does not recover, further price declines will be likely.

Regarding 210RN wafers, trading prices this week have generally dropped to RMB 1.35/piece. With continued cell price declines and weak end-user demand, trading prices may see further slips.

Overall, market price pressure persists. Given that end-user demand has yet to show a clear recovery, the short-term outlook for wafer prices remains pessimistic. Continued monitoring of price trends in downstream cells and modules will be crucial.

Cell

P-type (182P) cell prices this week:

  • Average price: RMB 0.295/W (slipped)
  • Price range: RMB 0.29–0.30/W (stayed same as last week)

China’s demand for p-type cells is mainly for small, scattered orders, with overall order volume sharply shrinking. Most of the current production is now being shipped to non-China markets, and significant price fluctuations are unlikely in the short term.

N-type cell prices all dropped this week:

183N:

  • Average price: RMB 0.285/W
  • Price range: RMB 0.28–0.29/W

210RN:

  • Average price: RMB 0.28/W
  • Price range: RMB 0.28–0.29/W

210N:

  • Average price: RMB 0.30/W
  • Price range: RMB 0.29–0.30/W

As of this Wednesday, module makers are still trying to negotiate for lower n-type cell prices. Leading cell manufacturers are holding 183N cell prices above RMB 0.28/W. Short-term prices for 210RN are under pressure due to inventory buildup. Prices for 210N are reportedly moving towards RMB 0.29/W in the second half of the week, with possible further declines.

The downstream price negotiations are intense this week. Since prices are nearing production costs, cell makers are trying to support them, and some will cut output in May. Prices are unlikely to recover until supply and demand balance out in May. Whether prices stop falling soon depends on support from both buyers and sellers.

Module

Module prices are dropping fast. Distributed project prices initially rose but are now falling quickly. Some small sellers with stockpiles are selling cheap. Some leading manufacturers are delivering at low prices, restarting the price competition. For ground-mounted projects, module prices sit at RMB 0.67–0.71/W. For distributed projects, shrinking demand and fewer high-priced orders have pushed prices down to RMB 0.7-0.73/W. Prices for new deals are down to RMB 0.68/W, with some even negotiating RMB 0.65/W.

Some of recent shipments are for orders signed earlier, with contract prices at RMB 0.61–0.68/W. Still, under the broader push for high-quality development, manufacturers are likely to negotiate with end-users to slow further price drops—potentially using blended pricing for earlier contracts or offering partial discounts.

Currently, module inventories remain at a healthy level. However, further demand will hinge on how China’s ground-mounted projects roll out in 2H25, as well as whether non-China demand holds steady as expected. Accordingly, price fluctuations in 2H25 are unlikely to experience sharp rises or steep declines as seen in the past while price competition will still have impact.

Module prices this week:

182mm PERC glass-glass:

  • RMB 0.62–0.70/W

HJT:

  • RMB 0.73-0.855/W
  • Ground-mounted projects: RMB 0.73-0.75/W

BC:

  • N-TBC: RMB 0.79-0.83/W (new orders for distributed projects)
  • Ground-mounted projects: RMB 0.80/W (fewer deliveries due to high prices)

Non-China module prices remain stable this week:

  • TOPCon: USD 0.08- 0.095/W
  • HJT: USD 0.095-0.12/W
  • PERC: USD 0.07-0.08/W
  • N-TBC: USD 0.10-0.11/W

TOPCon module prices by region:

Prices for Chinese exports to the Asia-Pacific come in at USD 0.085-0.09/W. In India, PERC and TOPCon modules have similar prices. Due to recent changes in Chinese cell prices, there has been little change this month. Indian modules made with Chinese cells are selling in bulk at USD 0.14–0.15/W.

Modules are delivered at USD 0.09/W in Australia, with prices for distributed projects starting to rise by USD 0.09-0.10/W. Overall delivery prices in Europe remain at USD 0.085-0.09/W, with spot prices showing slower increases and potentially slipping. H2 prices for ground-mounted projects sit at USD 0.08-0.085/W.

The Latin American market sees overall prices at USD 0.08-0.09/W. Prices in Brazil are reportedly fluctuating at USD 0.08-0.09/W. In the Middle East, prices mostly stay at USD 0.085-0.09/W.

US prices are impacted by policy changes. Manufacturers are now in a 90-day window and are rushing shipments of stocked products, leading to a slight upward price trend, even nearly USD 0.27–0.30/W (DDP). To avoid potential risks, there is a growing number of US module manufacturers raising their quotes, with some even approaching USD 0.40/W (DDP).