Polysilicon

This week, polysilicon orders have gradually been fulfilled, with prices for polysilicon chunks declining rapidly amid slow purchases and mixed market signals. Discussions are still ongoing, and more concrete information is expected in the latter part of the week. Early deals are trading at RMB 36-37/kg, while China-made granular polysilicon for current deliveries is priced at RMB 33-36/kg.

U.S. policy changes have disrupted non-China manufacturers’ polysilicon shipments, leading to a wait-and-see sentiment in manufacturing, cautious downstream buying, and a slip in average prices to USD 19/kg.

Amid industry turbulence, demand from late May to July remains unclear, with some manufacturers planning early maintenance. Despite overall output falling further in May, 95,000-100,000 MT of new production has been added. The main challenge remains clearing high polysilicon inventories.

Wafer

In late May, ongoing declines in cell prices and weak end-user demand continue to weigh on the market. While overall inventory pressure remains manageable, price support is weak. Some wafer producers have started cutting production to ease the price downturn, but market sentiment remains pessimistic in the short term.

Prices of n-type wafers:

•    183N: Mainly at RMB 0.95-1/piece.

•    210RN: Have fallen further to RMB 1.08-1.12/piece.

•    210N: Despite staying stable last week, prices have slipped to RMB 1.3-1.33/piece, showing downturn trends.

Mainstream trading prices for 183N have dropped to RMB 0.95/piece, while prices for 210RN have fallen to RMB 1.1/piece, with a rising number of deals reported below this level. For 210N, although some offers are below RMB 1.3/piece, mainstream prices remain at RMB 1.3/piece, indicating that while downward pressure persists, the market is still in a stalemate.

Overall, weak demand and falling cell prices are keeping wafer prices under pressure. Despite some production cuts, signs of stabilization are still unclear, and market sentiment remains weak.

Cell prices in China

P-type (182P) cell prices this week:

•    Average price: RMB 0.285/W (slipped)

•    Price range: RMB 0.28-0.285/W (slipped)

China’s demand for p-type cells is primarily for small, scattered orders, with the overall order volume sharply shrinking. Most of the current production is now being shipped to non-China markets, and significant price fluctuations are unlikely in the short term.

N-type cell prices this week:

183N:

•    Average price: RMB 0.26/W (slipped)

•    Price range: RMB 0.255-0.265/W

210RN:

•    Average price: RMB 0.265/W (sustained)

•    Price range: RMB 0.26-0.27/W

210N:

•    Average price: RMB 0.28/W (sustained)

•    Price range: RMB 0.275-0.28/W

Due to the plunging end-user demand and continued price declines in upstream wafers, module makers are still pressuring cell prices, leading to intense price competition. Notably, module makers are testing lower quotes for 183N cells, pushing toward RMB 0.255/W, while leading cell makers have shown limited acceptance of these quotes this week. As some manufacturers have attempted to sustain 210R cell prices by retracting previous low-priced orders, the average mainstream price has thus stabilized, but deliveries next week remain to be seen.

Cell production plans in May have seen little change. The market remains significantly oversupplied, and short-term cell prices may continue to drop in tandem with falling wafer prices.

Cell prices in non-China markets

P-type cell prices in USD:

The average export price for 182P cells from China is around USD 0.036/W. The higher-end pricing refers to Southeast Asian cells made with non-China-made polysilicon, directly exported to the U.S., with recent prices at USD 0.08–0.09/W, averaging USD 0.085/W.

N-type cell prices in USD:

The average export price for 183N cells from China has dropped from USD 0.036/W to USD 0.035/W this week, reflecting the continued cell price declines in China. For higher-end Southeast Asian cells made with non-China-made polysilicon and exported to the U.S., recent prices have sat at USD 0.11–0.12/W, averaging USD 0.12/W.

The average price of Southeast Asian cells exported to the U.S. has remained flat over time. During June and July, before the end of the 90-day tariff window for the U.S. reciprocal tariffs, demand is still likely to stay well-supported. However, significant shifts in U.S. trade policies remain possible. InfoLink will continue to closely monitor developments.

Module prices in China

In early May, demand was mainly driven by previously secured projects. However, demand support in the latter half of the month appears weak, with high market uncertainty.

The sluggish market will likely persist through July and August. Given the current conditions, some manufacturers have begun offering price concessions or promotional terms during negotiations.

Transaction prices for new TOPCon orders have dropped to RMB 0.65–0.66/W, with some smaller manufacturers quoting even lower at RMB 0.63–0.65/W. Previous mainstream delivery prices were still at RMB 0.68–0.70/W.

It is worth noting that some manufacturers are unable to fulfill deliveries at RMB 0.65/W, and earlier aggressive players are now adjusting their strategies. The recent price decline may start to stabilize.

Module prices this week:

182mm PERC glass-glass:

•    RMB 0.60–0.70/W

HJT:

•    RMB 0.72-0.85/W

•    Ground-mounted projects: RMB 0.72-0.75/W

BC:

•    N-TBC: RMB 0.7-0.8/W (new orders for distributed projects)

•    Ground-mounted projects: RMB 0.74-0.75/W

Module prices in non-China markets

Module prices in non-China markets hold steady this week.

TOPCon module prices by region:

•    Asia-Pacific:

1.    Prices for Chinese exports to the Asia-Pacific come in at USD 0.085-0.09/W. In India, modules made with Chinese cells and assembled locally are selling in bulk at USD 0.14–0.15/W. It is worth noting that some Indian manufacturers have recently begun sourcing cells from Southeast Asia.

2.    Modules are delivered at around USD 0.09/W in Australia, with prices for distribution-based and distributed projects starting to rise by USD 0.09-0.10/W.

•    Europe:

Overall delivery prices in Europe stay at USD 0.085-0.09/W, with reductions in recent and future orders, leading to signs of price decline. H2 prices for ground-mounted projects sit at USD 0.08-0.085/W.

•    Latin America:

Mainstream prices are at USD 0.08-0.09/W. Brazil see prices both at USD 0.08/W and USD 0.09/W.

•    Middle East:

Prices mostly hold at USD 0.085-0.09/W for bulk procurement, while previous high-priced locked-in orders are still being delivered at USD 0.10–0.11/W.

•    The U.S.:

Impacted by U.S. tariff policies, suppliers and project developers are actively negotiating new quotes. Current trading prices have slightly increased, approaching USD 0.27–0.30/W. Given trade risks, price quotes for locally made modules are also trending upward, with quotes above USD 0.40/W gradually becoming more common.